Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation. Using two different non-linear models, we find that the relationship between interest rate yield spreads and inflation changes for policy-relevant horizons in the United States is most pronounced at negative long-short yield spreads, and almost non-existent at positive values of the spread. These findings are consistent with studies noting asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the real economy.
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number
00-7.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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