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The information content of the term structure of interest rates about future inflation – an illustration of the importance of accounting for a time-varying real interest rate and inflation risk premium

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Christian Mose Nielsen (Aalborg University)
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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 with number 86.

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Date of creation: 03 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:86

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  1. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-80, August.
  2. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Francis Breedon & Jag Chadha, . "The Information Content of the Inflation Term Structure," Bank of England working papers 75, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Benninga, Simon & Protopapadakis, Aris, 1983. "Real and Nominal Interest Rates under Uncertainty: The Fisher Theorem and the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 856-67, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Lown, Cara S, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-30, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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  11. Frank Browne & Paolo Manasse, 1989. "The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Theory and Practice," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 69, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1992. "Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-429, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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