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La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Negra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales

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Author Info

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Enrique López

    ()

  • Carlos Arango

    ()

  • Juan Nicolás Hernández

    ()

Abstract

En el caso colombiano la tarea de pronosticar el futuro comportamiento del efectivo se ha convertido en un verdadero reto ya que durante la última década la economía ha sufrido importantes trasformaciones que han traído consigo una mayor volatilidad en las variables que lo determinan. En particular, recientemente se ha dado una fuerte reducción en la rentabilidad de activos alternativos al efectivo debido a la reducción en la tasa de inflación y a la introducción del impuesto a las transacciones financieras. Al mismo tiempo, los ciclos de la actividad económica parecen ser más pronunciados. Estos cambios cobran especial relevancia en la medida en que la demanda de dinero esté asociada en forma no lineal con sus determinantes. En este trabajo se explora esta posible relación no lineal y se explota la flexibilidad de las redes neuronales artificiales -ANN- para modelarla. Las ganancias en los errores de pronóstico y la significancia estadística de las pruebas de no linealidad frente a modelos de naturaleza lineal auguran un futuro promisorio a estas técnicas que permiten predecir mejor el futuro en un entorno cambiante.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 268.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:268

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Cited by:
  1. Mauricio Hernández Monsalve & Munir A. Jalil Barney & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "¿Por qué ha crecido tanto la cantidad de dinero?: teoría y Evidencia Internacional (1975-2002)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003821, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003246, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Hernández Monsalve, Mauricio A. & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 2006. "La demanda por dinero en Colombia: un poco más de evidencia en el período reciente," PERFIL DE COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE.
  4. José Mauricio Salazar Sáenz, . "Evaluación de pronóstico de una red neuronal sobre el PIB en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 575, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, . "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir Jalil Barney & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "¿Por qué ha crecido tanto la cantidad de dinero?: teoría y evidencia internacional (1975-2002)§," Borradores de Economia 402, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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