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La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Nagra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales

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Author Info
Martha Misas A. ()
Enrique López E. ()
Carlos A. Arango A. ()
Juan Nicolás Hernández A. ()

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Abstract

En el caso colombiano la tarea de pronosticar el futuro comportamiento del efectivo se ha convertido en un verdadero reto ya que durante la última década la economía ha sufrido importantes trasformaciones que han traído consigo una mayor volatilidad en las variables que lo determinan. En particular, recientemente se ha dado una fuerte reducción en la rentabilidad de activos alternativos al efectivo debido a la reducción en la tasa de inflación y a la introducción del impuesto a las transacciones financieras. Al mismo tiempo, los ciclos de la actividad económica parecen ser más pronunciados. Estos cambios cobran especial relevancia en la medida en que la demanda de dinero esté asociada en forma no lineal con sus determinantes. En este trabajo se explora esta posible relación no lineal y se explota la flexibilidad de las redes neuronales artificiales -ANN- para modelarla. Las ganancias en los errores de pronóstico y la significancia estadística de las pruebas de no linealidad frente a modelos de naturaleza lineal auguran un futuro promisorio a estas técnicas que permiten predecir mejor el futuro en un entorno cambiante.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002963.

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Length: 43
Date of creation: 31 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002963

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gertler, Mark, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 559-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Goodhart, Charles A E, 2000. "Can Central Banking Survive the IT Revolution?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 189-209, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1999. "The Future of Monetary Policy: The Central Bank as an Army with Only a Signal Corps?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 321-38, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "A Fallacy of Composition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1279-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sheri M. Markose & Yiing Jia Loke, 2002. "Can cash hold its own? International comparisons: Theory and evidence," Economics Discussion Papers 536, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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  12. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Mauricio A. Hernández & Munir Jalil Barney & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "¿Por qué ha crecido tanto la cantidad de dinero?: teoría y evidencia internacional (1975-2002)§," Borradores de Economia 402, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  2. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 65, pages 73-116, Julio-Dic. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aristizábal, María Clara, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal: aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Lecturas de Economia, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE. [Downloadable!]
  4. José Luis Torres, . "Modelos Para La Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 365, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, . "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mauricio Hernández Monsalve & Munir A. Jalil Barney & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "¿Por qué ha crecido tanto la cantidad de dinero?: teoría y Evidencia Internacional (1975-2002)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003821, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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