This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Guillaume Chevillon () (Economcis Department, University of Oxford)
David F. Hendry () (Economics Department, University of Oxford)
Abstract

We evaluate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting at several horizons. For forecast accuracy gains from DMS in finite samples, mis-specification and non-stationarity of the DGP are necessary, but when a model is well-specified, iterating the one-step ahead forecasts may not be asymptotically preferable. If a model is mis-specified for a non-stationary DGP, omitting either negative residual serial correlation or regime shifts, DMS can forecast more accurately. Monte Carlo simulations clarify the non-linear dependence of the estimation and forecast biases on the parameters of the DGP, and explain existing results.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2004/w12/ChevillonHendry2004.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2004-W12.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 24 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0412

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Maxine Collett).

Related research
Keywords: Adaptive estimation; multi-step estimation; dynamic forecasts; model mis-specification.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Johnston, H N, 1974. "A Note on the Estimation and Prediction Inefficiency of "Dynamic" Estimators," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 251-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ing, Ching-Kang, 2003. "Multistep Prediction In Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 254-279, April. [Downloadable!]
  6. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  7. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 212, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "`Weak` trends for inference and forecasting in finite samples," Economics Series Working Papers 210, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-1.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.