Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan
AbstractInflows of remittances to Pakistan are being increasingly viewed as a relatively attractive source of external finance, one that can help to foster development and manage economic shocks. Remittances have become a major source of revenue, surpassing the volume of FDI and official development assistance that the country receives. This study focuses primarily on the stability, cyclicality and stabilization impacts of migrant remittances to Pakistan. It is evident that foreign inflows exhibit different types of volatility; remittances are found to be a less volatile source of external finance than FDI and ODA that are counter-cyclical and stabilizing, thus serving to steady the recipient economy in times of economic downturns. ODA appears to be acyclical and stabilizing, whereas FDI emerges as pro-cyclical and destabilizing. Furthermore, remittances are insensitive to cyclical fluctuation in source countries. We also proceed with SVAR-based identification in order to examine the responses of financial flows to innovation in receiving and source economies. We confirm the counter-cyclical mechanism of remittances with Pakistani output. In particular, our results indicate that remittance flows to Pakistan are mainly due to the economic conditions in the receiving economy. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers with number 153.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
remittances; FDI; ODA; business cycle; Pakistan;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephane Pallage & Michel Robe, 1998.
"Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
63, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Junaid Ahmed, 2012. "Cyclical Properties of Migrant's Remittances to Pakistan: What the data tell us," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3266-3278.
- Hilde Christiane BjÛrnland, 2000. "Detrending methods and stylized facts of business cycles in Norway - an international comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 369-392.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009.
"Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?,"
NBER Working Papers
15419, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercylical?," Working Paper Series rwp10-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4450131, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Scholarly Articles 9642640, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998.
"Detrending and business cycle facts,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
- Erik Lueth & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2006. "A Gravity Model of Workers' Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/290, International Monetary Fund.
- Mazhar MUGHAL & Junaid AHMED, 2013. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," Working Papers 2012-2013_4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jan 2013.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
- Yan Sun & Udo Kock, 2011. "Remittances in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 11/200, International Monetary Fund.
- Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2009.
"Aid, Volatility, and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not,"
Review of Development Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 452-463, 08.
- Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Lisa CHAUVET, 2007. "Aid, Volatility and Growth Again When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Working Papers 200707, CERDI.
- Chauvet, Lisa & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2009. "Aid, volatility, and growth again : when aid volatility matters and when it does not," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5400, Paris Dauphine University.
- Lisa Chauvet & Patrick Guillaumont, 2011. "Aid, Volatility and Growth Again. When Aid Volatility Matters and When it Does Not," Working Papers halshs-00557123, HAL.
- Chauvet, Lisa & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2008. "Aid, Volatility and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When It Does Not," Working Paper Series RP2008/78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Agarwal, Reena & Horowitz, Andrew W., 2002. "Are International Remittances Altruism or Insurance? Evidence from Guyana Using Multiple-Migrant Households," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2033-2044, November.
- Kuckulenz, Anja & Buch, Claudia M., 2004. "Worker Remittances and Capital Flows to Developing Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-31, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Mazhar Y. Mughal, 2013. "Remittances As Development Strategy: Stepping Stones Or Slippery Slope?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 583-595, 05.
- Federico S. Mandelman & Andrei Zlate, 2010.
"Immigration, remittances, and business cycles,"
2008-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
- Mazhar MUGHAL & Amar Iqbal ANWAR, 2012. "Remittances, Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan: Macro and Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 2012-2013_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Aug 2012.
- Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009.
"Remittances, financial development, and growth,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
- Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2006. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 2160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Paola Giuliano, 2005. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/234, International Monetary Fund.
- Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008.
"Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2009. "Are Remittances Manna From Heaven? A Look at the Business Cycle Properties of Remittances," Working Papers 0905, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
- Åule Akkoyunlu & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2008. "A Link Between Workers' Remittances and Business Cycles in Germany and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(5), pages 23-40, September.
- Lucas, Robert E B & Stark, Oded, 1985. "Motivations to Remit: Evidence from Botswana," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 901-18, October.
- Gali, Jordi, 1992.
"How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gali's QJE 1992 results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00063, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
- Mazhar Yasin mughal & Farid Makhlouf, 2011. "Volatility of Remittances to Pakistan: What do the Data Tell?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 605-612.
- Dean Yang & HwaJung Choi, 2005.
"Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines,"
535, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
- Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2014. "What drives bilateral remittances to Pakistan? A gravity model approach," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 209, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.