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Cyclical Properties of Migrant's Remittances to Pakistan: What the data tell us

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  • Junaid Ahmed

    ()
    (Development Economics Research Group)

Abstract

Migrant's remittances are a growing source of foreign funds for several developing countries including Pakistan. Despite a burgeoning body of literature and growing interest in migrants' remittances and its impact on recipient's economies, relatively little work exists on the business cycle characteristics of remittances to Pakistan. This study analyzes whether remittance act pro- or counter-cyclically in the face of external and internal economic shocks by employing annual data from 1973-2010 for Pakistan. The results show that migrant's remittances are counter-cyclical with respect to home output and households consumption. Remittances are found to be acyclical with the output of Pakistan's major remittances sources such as the United States and United Kingdom. Remittances from Saudi Arabia, however, show mixed results. The overall impact of remittance inflows to Pakistan appears to be a stabilizing one.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 3266-3278

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00672

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Keywords: migrant's remittances; business cycle; real output; households consumption; Pakistan.;

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References

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  1. Farid MAKHLOUF & Mazhar MUGHAL, 2011. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness - A Bayesian Analysis," Working Papers 2011-2012_1, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2011.
  2. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
  3. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  4. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Paola Giuliano, 2005. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/234, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Şule Akkoyunlu & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2008. "A Link Between Workers' Remittances and Business Cycles in Germany and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(5), pages 23-40, September.
  7. Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Business Cycles and Remittances: A Comparison of the Cases of Turkish Workers in Germany and Mexican Workers in the US," MPRA Paper 6030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Roberto Coronado, 2009. "Business cycles and remittances: can the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition provide new evidence?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Mazhar Y. Mughal, 2013. "Remittances As Development Strategy: Stepping Stones Or Slippery Slope?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 583-595, 05.
  11. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 6029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Mazhar MUGHAL & Amar Iqbal ANWAR, 2012. "Remittances, Inequality and Poverty in Pakistan: Macro and Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 2012-2013_2, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Aug 2012.
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Cited by:
  1. Amar Iqbal ANWAR & Mazhar Yasin MUGHAL, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2013-2014_1, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Sep 2013.
  2. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  3. Mazhar MUGHAL & Junaid AHMED, 2013. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," Working Papers 2012-2013_4, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Jan 2013.

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