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Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model

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  • Shyh-Wei Chen

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    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Tunghai University)

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    Abstract

    This paper measures the accuracy of using regional cycles to identify national business cycle turning points in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel (MSP) model. Based on the MSP model, it is determined that regional cycles are highly capable of identifying national business cycle turning points in the U.S., but the duration of recessions of regional cycles are longer than those of national business cycles.

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2007/Volume3/EB-07C30069A.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 46 ()
    Pages: 1-12

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07c30069

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    1. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1993. "Regional income dynamics," Working Papers 93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
    3. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode-Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-13.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    8. Domazlicky, Bruce R., 1980. "Regional Business Cycles: A Survey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 10(1).
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    10. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
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