Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations
AbstractThis paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a nonstationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the US, the leading state-- regardless of which it happens to be--contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a "wave" of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 21 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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