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Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization

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  • David D. Selover
  • Roderick V. Jensen
  • John Kroll

Abstract

. Business cycles in different regions of the United States tend to synchronize. This study investigates the reasons behind this synchronization of business cycles and the consequent formation of a national business cycle. Trade between regions may not be strong enough for one region to “drive” business cycle fluctuations in another region. This study suggests that regional business cycles synchronize due to a nonlinear “mode‐locking” process in which weakly coupled oscillating systems (regions) tend to synchronize. There is no definitive test for mode‐lock. However, simulations, correlations, Granger causality tests, tests for nonlinearities, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis reveal modest econometric support for the regional mode‐locking hypothesis of business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:45:y:2005:i:4:p:703-745
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-4146.2005.00390.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    2. Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    3. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    4. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, June.
    5. G. Rigatos & P. Siano & T. Ghosh, 2019. "A Nonlinear Optimal Control Approach to Stabilization of Business Cycles of Finance Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1131, March.
    6. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
    7. Larry Filer & David D. Selover, 2014. "Why Can Weak Linkages Cause International Stock Market Synchronization? The Mode-Locking Effect," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 20-42, July.
    8. Hasan Engin Duran, 2013. "Convergence Of Regional Economic Cycles In Turkey," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 152-175, November.
    9. Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose & Ugo Fratesi, 2007. "Regional Business Cycles and the Emergence of Sheltered Economies in the Southern Periphery of Europe," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 621-648, December.
    10. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS

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