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The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia

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Author Info
Willem THORBECKE

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Abstract

East Asia is characterized by intricate production and distribution networks. Higher skilled workers in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan produce sophisticated technology-intensive intermediate goods and capital goods and ship them to China and ASEAN for assembly by lower skilled workers and reshipment throughout the world. These networks have promoted economic efficiency and functioned as an engine of growth. They have also been accompanied by large trade imbalances with the U.S. that could cause Asian currencies to appreciate against the dollar. This in turn would alter relative exchange rates in Asia, given the variety of exchange rate regimes in the region. This paper investigates how such exchange rate changes would affect trade within Asia and between Asia and the U.S. The results indicate that exchange rate changes can cause significant declines in exports of intermediate and capital goods from developed Asia to developing Asia. This evidence implies that exchange rate appreciations in developed Asia relative to developing Asia would disrupt the complimentary relationship that exists between these countries in the trade of sophisticated technology-intensive goods. The results also indicate that exchange rate elasticities for trade between Asia and the U.S. are not large enough to lend confidence that a depreciation of the dollar would improve the U.S. trade balance with Asia. This evidence implies that policymakers in the U.S. should not expect too much from an appreciation of Asian currencies and should focus instead on shortfalls of saving relative to investment if they are concerned about their trade imbalances.

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Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 06009.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:06009

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  1. Guillaume Gaulier & Francoise Lemoine & Deniz Unal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  2. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 754, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Fukao, Kyoji & Ishido, Hikari & Ito, Keiko, 2003. "Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 468-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2004. "Growth-led exports: is variety the spice of trade?," International Finance Discussion Papers 822, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Glenn Hoggarth & Hui Tong, . "The impact of yuan revaluation on the Asian region," Bank of England working papers 329, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jaime Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
  3. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jaime Marquez & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report," Working Paper Series 2006-41, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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