Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report
AbstractThough China's share of world trade is comparable to that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available suffer from two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Second, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally-planned economy to a market-oriented system. To address these limitations, this paper develops an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble merchandise exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes the period during which most of China's decentralization occurred. The estimation results suggest that a ten-percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by a half of a percentage point. The same appreciation lowers the share of aggregate imports by about a tenth of a percentage point.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): Jun ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Jayanthi, Sarma & Lee, Jaewoo, 2006.
"New Rates from New Weights,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Willem Thorbecke, 2011.
"The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On Trade In East Asia,"
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP),
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 85-102.
- Willem THORBECKE, 2006. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Discussion papers 06009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Finance Working Papers 23274, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Trade Working Papers 23274, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 263, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23274, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows-Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
- Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2003. "How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 350-370.
- Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, 09.
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
- Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.
- Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011.
"The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 614-621.
- Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
- Li Wang & John Whalley, 2007. "The Impacts of Renminbi Appreciation on Trades Flows and Reserve Accumulation in a Monetary Trade Model," NBER Working Papers 13586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Alicia García-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2009. "China's exchange rate policy and Asian trade," BIS Working Papers 282, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.