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Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade

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Joseph E. Gagnon

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Abstract

Krugman (1989) argued that differences across countries in estimated income elasticities of import demand are due to omission of an exporter supply effect. He showed that such an effect can be derived in a theoretical model with economies of scale in production and a taste for variety in consumption. In his model, countries grow by producing new varieties of goods, and they are able to export these goods without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes U.S. import demand from different source countries and finds strong evidence of a supply effect of roughly half the magnitude (0.75) of the income elasticity (1.5). Price elasticities for the most part are estimated close to -1, which is typical for the literature. Exclusion of the supply effect leads to overestimation of the income elasticity. Results based on U.S. exports to different destinations are less robust, but largely corroborate these findings.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 754.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:754

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Related research
Keywords: Imports ; International trade;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tamim Bayoumi, 1999. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," IMF Working Papers 99/74, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Willem THORBECKE, 2006. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Discussion papers 06009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Aaron Flaaen, . "Trading with Asia's Giants," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 220, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2004. "Fragmentation and East Asia’s Information Technology Trade," Working Papers 200409, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Les déterminants du solde de la balance des transactions courantes au Luxembourg," BCL working papers 13, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  6. Baybars Karacaovali, 2008. "Productivity Matters for Trade Policy: Theory and Evidence," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-14, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:3:p:1454-1454 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Barry Bosworth, 2008. "Trading with Asia’s Giants," Working Papers id:1615, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  9. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Productive capacity, product varieties, and the elasticities approach to the trade balance," International Finance Discussion Papers 781, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Desirée Van Welsum, 2004. "In Search of ‘Offshoring’: Evidence from U.S. Imports of Services," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0402, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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