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Productive capacity, product varieties, and the elasticities approach to the trade balance

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Author Info
Joseph E. Gagnon

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Abstract

Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a country's trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugman's model.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 781.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:781

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Related research
Keywords: International trade ; Productivity ; Production (Economic theory);

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sato, Kazuo, 1977. "The Demand Function for Industrial Exports: A Cross-Country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(4), pages 456-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hummels, David & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 799-836, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew Levin & John Rogers & Ralph Tryon, 1997. "Evaluating international economic policy with the Federal Reserve's global model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 797-817. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1989. "Adjustment costs and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 327-344, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Tamim Bayoumi, 1999. "Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data," IMF Working Papers 99/74, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Hamid Faruqee & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Eswar Prasad & Bart Turtelboom, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Funke, Michael & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 2001. "Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 493-505. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  12. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 754, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Feenstra, Robert C. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1996. "Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 187-207, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Laurence Le Fouler & Wim Suyker & Dave Turner, 2001. "Trade Linkages and the Trade Matrices in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 310, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June. [Downloadable!]
  22. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245. [Downloadable!]
  23. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Martin, Philippe & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: the Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 6660, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mˆmjean, 2008. "Elasticity Optimism," Working Papers 242008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," NBER Working Papers 10540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Massimiliano Serati, 2008. "Trade and quality: theoretical and empirical evidence for the euro zone," LIUC Papers in Economics 206, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
  6. repec:bep:maccon:v:8:y:2008:i:1:p:1579-1579 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michal Rubaszek, 2009. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 40(1), pages 7-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Desirée Van Welsum, 2004. "In Search of ‘Offshoring’: Evidence from U.S. Imports of Services," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0402, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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