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Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland

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Abstract

The paper presents an extended version of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model (FFER). By introducing potential output into the specification of the foreign trade equations of the partial equilibrium FEER model we show that, under some plausible assumptions, the calculated level of the equilibrium exchange rate is consistent with the estimates of the behavioral equilibrium exchange (BEER). Moreover, we indicate that including the terms of trade as an explanatory variable in a reduced-form BEER equation for the real exchange rate might lead to the indeterminacy of the parameter estimates. The proposed model is applied to analyze fluctuations of the Polish zloty. We show that the real appreciation of the zloty is largely an equilibrium phenomenon.

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File URL: http://www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2009/01/bik_01_2009_01.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its journal Bank i Kredyt.

Volume (Year): 40 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 7-22

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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:40:y:2009:i:1:p:7-22

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Keywords: Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; current account; foreign trade;

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References

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  1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Sustainable Parities for ceecs in the Run-up to emu Membership," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 983-1012.
  2. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "Current Account Sustainability In Selected Transition Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp844, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 06/188, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
  10. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
  11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  12. Jiri Popiera & Jan Bruha, 2007. "Inquiries on Dynamics of Transition Economy Convergence in a Two-Country Model," 2007 Meeting Papers 587, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment: Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Paolo Zanghieri, 2004. "Current Accounts Dynamics in new EU members: Sustainability and Policy Issues," Working Papers 2004-07, CEPII research center.
  15. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  16. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Hamid Faruqee & Guy Debelle, 1996. "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach," IMF Working Papers 96/58, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 0311, European Central Bank.
  19. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Abdelghani, Echchabi & Osman, Sayid & Isares, Mahamad & Khalid, Sorhiran & Zulhilmi, Zulkifli, 2011. "The implementation of Gulf Dinar among the GCC member countries and its possible impacts," MPRA Paper 28245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 64, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Sławomir Dudek & Tomasz Zając & Kamil Danielski & Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec & Paweł Kolski & Dawid Pachucki & Iwona Fudała-Poradzińska, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
  4. Magdalena Osinska & Karolina Kluth, 2010. "Convergence of Greek Economy with the EU and Some Comparisons with Polish Experience," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 139-156.

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