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Estimating Trade Equations from Aggregate Bilateral Data

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Bayoumi, Tamim

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Abstract

Bilateral data on 420 merchandise trade flows between 21 industrial countries are used to estimate standard trade equations. The data set of over 11,000 observations allows the underlying elasticities to be estimated with considerable precision. Remarkably, a single specification appears to explain behaviour across these countries in spite of the large number of individual flows analysed. The results indicate a powerful long-run effect from supply on exports. Also, the real exchange rate elasticity depends upon the behaviour of third country exchange rates, there is evidence of pricing to market and of a J-curve.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1970.

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Date of creation: Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1970

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Related research
Keywords: Panel Data Trade Elasticities

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Daniel Kanda, 2006. "Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina," IMF Working Papers 06/276, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 754, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes & Ari Van Assche, 2004. "Fragmentation and East Asia’s Information Technology Trade," Working Papers 200409, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald & Jacques Melitz, 2005. "Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Martin Bodenstein, 2006. "Closing open economy models," International Finance Discussion Papers 867, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Productive capacity, product varieties, and the elasticities approach to the trade balance," International Finance Discussion Papers 781, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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