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On Selection of Components for a Diffusion Index Model : It's not the Size, It's How You Use It

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Author Info
Boriss Siliverstovs
Konstantin A. Kholodilin

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Abstract

This paper suggests a novel approach to pre-selection of the component series of the diffusion index based on their individual forecasting performance. It is shown that this targeted selection allows substantially improving the forecasting ability compared to the diffusion index models that are based on the largest available dataset.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 598.

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Length: 18 p.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp598

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Related research
Keywords: Diffusion index forecasting optimal subset of data

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General

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  1. Marc Brisson & Bryan Campbell & John Galbraith, 2001. "Forecasting Some Low-Predictability Time Series Using Diffusion Indices," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-46, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Israel Sancho & maximo Camacho, 2002. "Spanish diffusion indexes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 276, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Martin Schneider & Martin Spitzer, 2004. "Forecasting Austrian GDP using the generalized dynamic factor model," Working Papers 89, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  4. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2004. "The generalized dynamic factor model consistency and rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 231-255, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. repec:taf:emetrv:v:24:y:2005:i:4:p:369-404 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  11. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-38, June.
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  12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  13. Schumacher, Christian, 2005. "Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,24, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "A Parametric Estimation Method for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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