Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: a Theoretical Approach
AbstractThis paper makes an attempt to determine the factors influencing exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty, as well as, output and output variability. In the context of a small open economy under flexible exchange rates regime it is found that the level both of exchange rate and output is affected by monetary and inflationary shocks, as well as shocks in government spending, output and trade balance. Further, the uncertainty of exchange rate and output is associated positively with the uncertainty of all shocks while the contemporaneous occurrence of selected shocks imposes either a positive or negative impact on exchange rate and output volatility. Finally, it is shown that the effect of the determinants either of exchange rate volatility or output volatility is very sensitive to the parameter values.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2008_16.
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision: Dec 2008
Vexchange rate volatility; output volatility; open-economy models.;
Other versions of this item:
- Maria Grydaki & Stilianos Fountas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Output Volatility: A Theoretical Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 552-569, 08.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-01-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2009-01-03 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2009-01-03 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003.
"The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
- Jorge IvÃ¡n Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier, 2004. "Structural Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Volatility: A Cross-Section Study," IMF Working Papers 04/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Speight, Alan E H, 1999. "UK Output Variability and Growth: Some Further Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 175-84, May.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2004.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Rules in the US States,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 101-117, January.
- Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996.
"Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux,"
NBER Working Papers
4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
NBER Working Papers
9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998.
"Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2005. "Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1987. "Exchange-rate determination: An equilibrium approach with imperfect capital substitutability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 241-261, November.
- Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002.
"Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth,"
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001. "Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth," Working Papers 0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Driskill, Robert & McCafferty, Stephen, 1980. "Exchange-Rate Variability, Real and Monetary Shocks, and the Degree of Capital Mobility under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 577-86, November.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Alfonso Mendoza, 2004. "Output Variability and Economic Growth: the Japanese Case," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 353-363, October.
- Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Peck, James, 1990. "Exchange Rate Volatility in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(3), pages 559-74, August.
- Jean Imbs, 2006.
"Growth and Volatility,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
06-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, . "On the Determinants of Growth Volatility: a Nonparametric Approach," Discussion Papers 2003/25, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DSE), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
- Davide Furceri, 2007. "Is Government Expenditure Volatility Harmful for Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 103-120, 03.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Theodore Panagiotidis).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.