Effects of oil price shocks on German business cycles
AbstractIn this paper we analyse to what extend movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany. To clarify whether oil price shocks have effects on real economic activity in Germany at all we use two different versions of a real business cycle model namely a closed and a small open economy version and introduce oil as an additional factor in the production function. Like in the related literature (Kim and Loungani 1992; de Miguel et al. 2003) in both versions oil price shocks have effects on real economic activity. In a second step we use these models to analyse whether the effects of oil price movements have changed over time. Our hypothesis is that the effects decreased since the seventies because oil use became a less important factor for industrial production. Therefore we split our data set into two subperiods namely from 1970 to 1986 and from 1987 to 2000 and calibrate our models to both subsets. In this model economy oil price shocks contribute substantially to business cycle fluctuations in the seventies and early eighties but only to a very limited extend in the late eighties and nineties
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 212.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
oil prices; business cycles; small open economy;
Other versions of this item:
- Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2005. "Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles," RWI Discussion Papers 0036, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2001.
"Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case,"
Discussion Paper Series
213, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
- Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2006. "Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 921-950, November.
- Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2003. "Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case," Kiel Working Papers 1158, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
- Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
- Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994.
"Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996.
"Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity,"
NBER Working Papers
5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997.
"Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994.
"The computational experiment: an econometric tool,"
9420, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992.
"The role of energy in real business cycle models,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
- Thomas Harjes, 1997. "Real business cycles in an open economy: An application to Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 635-656, December.
- Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-61.
- Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
- L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
- Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001.
"A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns,"
01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
- King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
- Andreas Löschel & Ulrich Oberndorfer, 2009.
"Oil and Unemployment in Germany,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik),
Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(2-3), pages 146-162, June.
- Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.