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Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?

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  • Torsten Schmidt

    ()

  • Tobias Zimmermann

    ()

Abstract

Recent oil price shocks have relatively small effects on real economic activity and inflation compared to the experiences of the seventies and the early eighties. In this paper we analyse possible reasons for these phenomena using the example of the German economy. At first, by estimating a VAR-model and calculating impulse responses to an oil price shock it is confirmed that the macroeconomic effects have become much smaller. Moreover, our simulations show that oil price hikes are more closely related to global economic activity since the early nineties.Then, to get a deeper understanding of the structural changes which are responsible for these results we utilize a new Keynesian open economy model. It becomes obvious that the small effects of the recent oil price shocks on the German economy can be explained by a combination of a reduced energy cost share and good luck in terms of a strong growing global economy. Hence, if global economic growth decreases, pure oil price shocks may still have substantial effects on the German economy, even if the energy pricevulnerability has been reduced.These results should be valid also for other oil importing countries, at least from a qualitative point of view.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0029.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0029

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Keywords: Oil prices; new Keynesian open economy model;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Löschel, Andreas & Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-136, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2008. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  3. Al-mulali, Usama & Che Sab, Normee, 2009. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Real Exchange Rate of the Dirham: a Case Study of the United Arab Emirates," MPRA Paper 23493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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