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Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles

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  • Torsten Schmidt

    ()

  • Tobias Zimmermann

Abstract

In this paper we analyse to what extent movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany.We proceed in several steps:As a starting point we use a standard real business cycle model for the German economy and introduce energy as an additional factor in the production function. As in Kim/Loungani (1992) our finding is that oil price shocks increase the volatility of output but only to a limited extent.We therefore continue by using a real business cycle model for a small open economy and again include energy use in the production function (de Miguel et al. 2003).But compared to our previous model we could only find an additional increase in volatility of output under certain conditions. Subsequently,we use these models to analyse whether the impact of oil price movements has changed over time by splitting our data set into two subsamples: the first from 1970 to 1986 and the second from 1987 to 2002.The main results suggest that the reduced importance of energy for industrial production substantially decreases the vulnerability of the German economy with regard to oil price shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in its series RWI Discussion Papers with number 0036.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:dpaper:0031

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Keywords: Oil prices; business cycle; small open economy;

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References

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  1. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
  2. Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2001. "Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case," Discussion Paper Series, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics 213, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Working Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  5. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
  6. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
  7. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
  9. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Thomas Harjes, 1997. "Real business cycles in an open economy: An application to Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 635-656, December.
  12. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  13. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-61.
  14. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  15. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Löschel, Andreas & Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Oil and Unemployment in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-136, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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