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Effects of Oil Price Shocks on German Business Cycles

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Author Info
Torsten Schmidt ()
Tobias Zimmermann
Abstract

In this paper we analyse to what extent movements in oil prices can help to explain business cycle fluctuations in Germany.We proceed in several steps:As a starting point we use a standard real business cycle model for the German economy and introduce energy as an additional factor in the production function. As in Kim/Loungani (1992) our finding is that oil price shocks increase the volatility of output but only to a limited extent.We therefore continue by using a real business cycle model for a small open economy and again include energy use in the production function (de Miguel et al. 2003).But compared to our previous model we could only find an additional increase in volatility of output under certain conditions. Subsequently,we use these models to analyse whether the impact of oil price movements has changed over time by splitting our data set into two subsamples: the first from 1970 to 1986 and the second from 1987 to 2002.The main results suggest that the reduced importance of energy for industrial production substantially decreases the vulnerability of the German economy with regard to oil price shocks.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in its series RWI Discussion Papers with number 0036.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rwi:dpaper:0031

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Related research
Keywords: Oil prices; business cycle; small open economy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
    Other versions:
  2. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alfred Maussner & Julius Spatz, 2003. "Determinants of Business Cycles in Small Scale Macroeconomic Models: The German Case," Kiel Working Papers 1158, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin-Moreno, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 47-62.
  6. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Correia, I. & Rabelo, S. & Naves, J.C., 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," RCER Working Papers 382, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  10. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Thomas Harjes, 1997. "Real business cycles in an open economy: An application to Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 635-656, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Torsten Schmidt & Tobias Zimmermann, 2007. "Why are the Effects of Recent Oil Price Shocks so Small?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0029, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  2. Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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