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Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

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  • Joakim Westerlund

    (Department of Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden)

Abstract

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.967
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.2/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 193-233

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:2:p:193-233

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk & Canan Sancar, 2013. "Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(6), pages 791-812, December.
  2. Yuki Toyoshima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Panel cointegration analysis of the Fisher effect: Evidence from the US, the UK, and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2674-2682.
  3. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2012. "A note on the estimation of long-run relationships in panel equations with cross-section linkages," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Issiaka & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Anchor currency and real exchange rate dynamics in the CFA Franc zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 722-732.
  5. Gregoriou, Andros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 166-176, April.
  6. Guloglu, Bulent & Tekin, R. Baris & Saridogan, Ercan, 2012. "Economic determinants of technological progress in G7 countries: A re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 604-608.
  7. Caner COLAK & Selman TOKPUNAR & Yasin UZUN, 2014. "Determinants of Sectoral Import in Manufacturing Industry: A Panel Data Analysis," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 271-281.
  8. Gengenbach, Christian & Urbain, Jean-Pierre & Westerlund, Joakim, 2008. "Panel Error Correction Testing with Global Stochastic Trends," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  9. Beyer, Andreas & Haug, Alfred A. & Dewald, William G., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
  10. Bai, Jushan & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2009. "Testing Panel Cointegration with Unobservable Dynamic Common Factors," MPRA Paper 35243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Arnwine, Neil & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "What Fisher knew about his relation, we sometimes forget," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 193-195, December.
  12. Robinson Kruse & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & Antonio E. Noriega, 2013. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," CREATES Research Papers 2013-11, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  13. Månsson, Kristofer & Shukur, Ghazi & Sjölander, Pär, 2012. "Testing for Panel Cointegration in an Error Correction Framework - with an Application to the Fisher Hypothesis," HUI Working Papers 72, HUI Research.
  14. Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2009. "A residual-based bootstrap test for panel cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3222-3232.
  15. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.

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