The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles
AbstractI study a business cycle model where agents learn about the state of the economy by accumulating captal. During recessions, agents invest less, abd this generates noisier estimates of macroeconomic conditions and an increase in uncertainty. The endogenous increase in aggregate uncertainty further reduces economic activity, which in turn leads to more uncertainty, and so on. Thus, through changes in uncertainty, learning gives rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies business cycles. I use the calibrated model to measure the size of this uncertainty multiplier.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 016.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan
Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2014-04-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2014-04-18 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2014-04-18 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Fernandez, Roque B, 1981.
"A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-76, August.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
NBER Working Papers
12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers, Financial Markets Group dp580, Financial Markets Group.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1997. "Endogenous Growth Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262011662, December.
- Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yayoi Hatano).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.