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Liquidity, Assets and Business Cycles

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  • Shouyong Shi

Abstract

I construct a tractable model to evaluate the liquidity shock hypothesis that exogenous shocks to equity market liquidity are an important cause of the business cycle. After calibrating the model, I find that a large and persistent negative liquidity shock can generate large drops in investment, employment and output. Contrary to the hypothesis, however, a negative liquidity shock generates an equity price boom. This counterfactual response of equity price is robust, provided that a negative liquidity shock tightens firms' financing constraint on investment. Also, I demonstrate that the same counterfactual response of equity price arises when there is a financial shock to a firm's collateral constraint on borrowing. For equity price to fall as it typically does in a recession, the negative liquidity/financial shock must be accompanied or caused by other changes that relax firms' financing constraint on investment. I discuss some candidates of these concurrent changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number tecipa-459.

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Length: Unknown pages
Date of creation: 03 Jul 2012
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Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-459

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Keywords: Liquidity; Assets; Business cycles; Collateral;

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  1. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger & Laura Power, 1995. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," Papers 0062, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  3. Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Andrea Ajello, 2012. "Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  6. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Jaccard, Ivan, 2013. "Liquidity constraints, risk premia, and themacroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks," Working Paper Series 1525, European Central Bank.
  2. Ajello, Andrea, 2010. "Financial intermediation, investment dynamics and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 32447, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2011.
  3. Yiting Li & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2011. "Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets," NBER Working Papers 17500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Engin Kara & Jasmin Sin, 2013. "Liquidity, Quantitative Easing and Optimal Monetary Policy," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 13/635, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  5. Soeren Radde & Wei Cui, 2013. "Search-Based Endogenous Illiquidity, Business Cycles and Monetary Policy," 2013 Meeting Papers 1009, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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