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The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility

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  • Steven Lugauer

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame)

Abstract

The cyclical volatility of U.S. gross domestic product suddenly declined during the early 1980s and remained low for over 20 years. I develop a labor search model with worker heterogeneity and match-specific costs to show how an increase in the supply of high-skill workers can contribute to a decrease in aggregate output volatility. In the model, firms react to changes in the distribution of skills by creating jobs designed specifically for high-skill workers. The new worker-firm matches are more profitable and less likely to break apart due to productivity shocks. Aggregate output volatility falls because the labor market stabilizes on the extensive margin. In a simple calibration exercise, the labor market based mechanism generates a substantial portion of the observed changes in output volatility.

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File URL: http://www3.nd.edu/~tjohns20/RePEc/deendus/wpaper/005_skills.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 005.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision: Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:nod:wpaper:005

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Postal: 434 Flanner Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556
Phone: (574) 631-7698
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Web page: http://economics.nd.edu
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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; Skill Supply; Demographics;

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References

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  1. Steven Lugauer & Nelson Mark, 2010. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," Working Papers 007, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
  2. Cazzavillan, Guido & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2011. "Skill-biased technological change, endogenous labor supply and growth: A model and calibration to Poland and the US," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 124-136, June.
  3. Diego A. Comin & Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 167-228 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," NBER Working Papers 3927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  6. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact Of Young Workers On The Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007, August.
  7. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-80, Fall.
  8. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 7-72, March.
  9. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," Discussion Papers 07-010, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  10. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
  11. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
  12. Alexis Le�n, 2008. "The Effect of Household Appliances on Female Labor Force Participation: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 355, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2009.
  13. Lugauer, Steven, 2012. "Demographic Change And The Great Moderation In An Overlapping Generations Model With Matching Frictions," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 706-731, November.
  14. Daron Acemoglu, 1999. "Changes in Unemployment and Wage Inequality: An Alternative Theory and Some Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1259-1278, December.
  15. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  16. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  17. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  18. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
  19. Lugauer, Steven & Redmond, Michael, 2012. "The age distribution and business cycle volatility: International evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 694-696.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility
    by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2012-11-20 04:13:04

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