A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change
AbstractIn this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the Bayesian counterfactual analysis to examine the sources of the volatility reduction in U.S. real GDP growth in the 1980s. Using a structural VAR model of output growth and the unemployment rate, we find strong statistical support for the idea that a counterfactual change in the size of structural shocks only, with no corresponding change in propagation, would have produced the same overall volatility reduction that actually occurred. Looking deeper, we find evidence that a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate supply shocks only would have generated a larger volatility reduction than a counterfactual change in the size of aggregate demand shocks only. We show that these results are consistent with a standard monetary VAR, for which counterfactual analysis also suggests the importance of shocks in generating the volatility reduction, but with the counterfactual change in monetary shocks only generating a small reduction in volatility
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 259.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change," Working Papers 2004-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao A. Zha, 1998.
"Does monetary policy generate recessions?,"
98-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 183-202.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger, 2001.
"The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience,"
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003.
"Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,"
NBER Working Papers
9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.