A classifying procedure for signalling turning points
AbstractA Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify an out-of-sample observation vector into either of two regimes. This leads to a procedure for making probability forecasts for changes of regimes in a time series, i.e. for turning points. Instead of estimating past turning points using maximum likelihood, the model is estimated with respect to known past regimes. This makes it possible to perform feature extraction and estimation for different forecasting horizons. The inference aspect is emphasized by including a penalty for a wrong decision in the cost function. The method, here called a 'Markov Bayesian Classifier (MBC)', is tested by forecasting turning points in the Swedish and US economies, using leading data. Clear and early turning point signals are obtained, contrasting favourably with earlier HMM studies. Some theoretical arguments for this are given. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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