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Analysis of the US Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model

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  • Kontolemis, Zenon G

Abstract

This paper identifies turning points for the US "business cycle" using information from different time series. The model, a multivariate Markov-switching model, assumes that each series is characterized by a mixture of two normal distributions (a high and low mean) with the switching from one to the other determined by a common Markov process. The procedure is applied to the series composing the composite coincident indicator in the USA to obtain business cycle turning points. The business cycle chronology is closer to the NBER reference cycle than the turning points obtained from the individual series using a univariate model. The model is also used to forecast the series with some encouraging results. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kontolemis, Zenon G, 2001. "Analysis of the US Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 47-61, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:47-61
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    Cited by:

    1. Malika Hamadi & Andreas Heinen, 2011. "Ownership Structure and Firm Performance : Evidence from a non-parametric panel," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-16, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    2. Adél Bosch & Franz Ruch, 2013. "An Alternative Business Cycle Dating Procedure for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(4), pages 491-516, December.
    3. Vasyl Golosnoy & Jens Hogrefe, 2013. "Signaling NBER turning points: a sequential approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 438-448, February.
    4. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Lars-Erik Öller & Lasse Koskinen, 2004. "A classifying procedure for signalling turning points," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 197-214.
    6. David Bock & Eva Andersson & Marianne Frisén, 2005. "Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 465-490.
    7. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
    8. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
    9. Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2020. "Markov-Switching Model of Family Income Quintile Shares," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 207-222, June.

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