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Stochastic Trends, Deterministic Trends, and Business Cycle Turning Points

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  • Gordon, Stephen

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between specifications for long-run output patterns and specifications for business cycle dynamics. In an application to US GDP, it is found that inferences about the nature of the trend in output are not robust to changes in the specification for short-run fluctuations. Similarly, the choice of which model best describes the transitory movements in output depends on the way in which the trend is specified. The empirical analysis makes use of Bayesian methods to compare time series models for US GDP. Inspection of the predictive densities for the individual data points suggests that the information contained in the data is largely limited to the observations associated with business cycle turning points (c) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1997-v12.4/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 12 (1997)
Issue (Month): 4 (July-Aug.)
Pages: 411-34

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:12:y:1997:i:4:p:411-34

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Cited by:
  1. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  2. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics.
  3. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
  4. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Forecasting realized volatility: a Bayesian model-averaging approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 709-733.
  5. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  6. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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