Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Monetary policy regimes in macroeconomic data: An application of fractal analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Mulligan, Robert F.
  • Koppl, Roger

Abstract

Macromonetary data are examined for behavioral stability over Alan Greenspan's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve System. Strong evidence of stochastic dependence is found using Lo's modified rescaled range tests, though not consistently over the earlier, as opposed to the later, subsample. This finding is suggestive of a change in fundamentals such as monetary policy. Then, five self-affine fractal analysis techniques for estimating the Hurst exponent, Mandelbrot-Lévy characteristic exponent, and fractal dimension are employed to explore the data's fractal properties. Techniques are rescaled-range, power-spectral density, roughness-length, variogram, and wavelet analysis. Formal hypothesis tests provide further evidence of a change in monetary policy between the 1989-1996 and 1997-2006 subperiods. This change is manifested both in the behavior and distribution of month-to-month changes in monetary aggregates, ratios, and multipliers, and in the behavior and distribution of macroeconomic data. Most series become significantly less antipersistent after the breakpoint than before. Strong evidence is presented that U.S. monetary policy became actively interventionist after December 1996, and that the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve System has been lowered compared to the earlier period.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976911000020
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 51 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 201-211

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:2:p:201-211

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

Related research

Keywords: Monetary policy regimes Adjusted rescaled range Hurst exponent Fractal analysis Activist policy Rules v. discretion;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
  2. Ball, Laurence, 2001. "Another look at long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 31-44, February.
  3. John Barkoulas & Nickolaos Travlos, 1998. "Chaos in an emerging capital market? The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 231-243.
  4. Michael L. Mussa, 1984. "The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 13-78 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Mulligan, Robert F. & Lombardo, Gary A., 2004. "Maritime businesses: volatile stock prices and market valuation inefficiencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 321-336, May.
  7. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1991. "Long-Run Income and Interest Elasticities of Money Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 665-74, November.
  8. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
  9. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
  10. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2010. "Communication in repeated monetary policy games," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 228-243, April.
  12. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Long Term Dependence in Stock Returns," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 314., Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, 09.
  14. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
  15. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  16. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration- Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 311., Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  18. repec:cto:journl:v:24:y:2004:i:3:p: is not listed on IDEAS
  19. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  20. Roger Koppl & Carlo Nardone, 1997. "The Angular Distribution of Asset Returns in Delay Space," Finance 9703001, EconWPA.
  21. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
  22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  23. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  24. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Is the US Demand for Money Unstable?," MPRA Paper 15715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421.
  26. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 1996. "A simple long-memory equilibrium interest rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 317-321, December.
  27. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Gurkan S. Oguz, 1997. "Stochastic Long Memory in Traded Goods Prices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 349., Boston College Department of Economics.
  28. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  29. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
  30. repec:cto:journl:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p: is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Koppl, Roger & Yeager, Leland B., 1996. "Big Players and Herding in Asset Markets: The Case of the Russian Ruble," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 367-383, July.
  32. Poole, William, 1988. "Monetary Policy Lessons of Recent Inflation and Disinflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 73-100, Summer.
  33. Kramer, Walter & Runde, Ralf, 1997. "Chaos and the compass rose," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 113-118, February.
  34. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  35. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
  36. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 361, Boston College Department of Economics.
  37. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  38. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mulligan, Robert F., 2014. "Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 252-264.
  2. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2014. "Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 71-81.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:2:p:201-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.