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Long-term dependence in stock returns

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  • Barkoulas, John T.
  • Baum, Christopher F.

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of fractal dynamics in stock returns. We improve upon existing literature in two ways: i) instead of rescaled-range analysis, we use the more efficient semi- nonparametric procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH, 1983), and ii) to ensure robustness, we apply the GPH test to a variety of aggregate and sectoral stock indices and individual companies' stock returns series at both daily and monthly frequencies. Our results indicate that fractal structure is not exhibited by stock indices, but it may characterize the behavior of some individual stock returns series.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 53 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 253-259

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:53:y:1996:i:3:p:253-259

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References

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  1. Victor Chow, K. & Denning, Karen C. & Ferris, Stephen & Noronha, Gregory, 1995. "Long-term and short-term price memory in the stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 287-293, September.
  2. Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1995. "A search for long memory in international stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 597-615, August.
  4. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2012. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Papers 1208.1298, arXiv.org.
  4. Mulligan, Robert F. & Koppl, Roger, 2011. "Monetary policy regimes in macroeconomic data: An application of fractal analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 201-211, May.
  5. Ellis, Craig, 1999. "Estimation of the ARFIMA (p, d, q) fractional differencing parameter (d) using the classical rescaled adjusted range technique," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 53-65.
  6. Mulligan, Robert F., 2004. "Fractal analysis of highly volatile markets: an application to technology equities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 155-179, February.
  7. Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory in a small stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
  8. Barkoulas, John T & Baum, Christopher F, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling and Forecasting of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-72, Fall.
  9. Adnan Kasman & Erdost Torun, 2007. "Long Memory in the Turkish Stock Market Return and Volatility," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 13-27.
  10. Mulligan, Robert F. & Lombardo, Gary A., 2004. "Maritime businesses: volatile stock prices and market valuation inefficiencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 321-336, May.
  11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2010. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  12. Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla, 2007. "Modeling Long-Term Memory Effect in Stock Prices: A Comparative Analysis with GPH Test and Daubechies Wavelets," MPRA Paper 2481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Turvey, Calum G. & Power, Gabriel J., 2006. "The Confidence Limits of a Geometric Brownian Motion," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21239, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  14. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1998. "Fractional dynamics in Japanese financial time series," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 115-124, May.
  15. Henryk Gurgul & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2006. "Long-run properties of trading volume and volatility of equities listed in DJIA index," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 29-56.
  16. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Long Memory and Forecasting in Euroyen Deposit Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 361, Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. Jussi Tolvi, 2003. "Long memory in a small stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13.
  18. Mattarocci, Gianluca, 2006. "Market characteristics and chaos dynamics in stock markets: an international comparison," MPRA Paper 4296, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
  19. Emmanuel Anoruo & Luis Gil-Alana, 2011. "Mean reversion and long memory in African stock market prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 296-308, July.

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