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Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countries

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  • Teles, Vladimir Kühl
  • Zaidan, Marta

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in most cases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation.

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  • Teles, Vladimir Kühl & Zaidan, Marta, 2010. "Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 180-183, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:91:y:2010:i:1:p:180-183
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    2. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.
    3. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2013. "Taylor rules and exchange rate predictability in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1008-1031.
    4. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    5. Armand FOUEJIEU AZANGUE, 2013. "Inflation Targeters Do Not Care (Enough) about Financial Stability: A Myth? Investigation on a Sample of Emerging Market Economies," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2248, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Erdem Ekrem & Kayhan Selim, 2011. "The Taylor Rule in Estimating the Performance of Inflation Targeting Programs: The Case of Turkey," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    8. Armand Fouejieu Azangue, 2014. "Inflation Targeters Do Not Care (Enough) about Financial Stability: A Myth?," Working Papers halshs-01012077, HAL.
    9. Balbino, Christian Eduardo & Colla, Ernesto & Teles, Vladimir Kuhl, 2011. "A Política Monetária Brasileira sob o Regime de Metas de Inflação," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    10. MeiChi Huang, 2020. "A threshold unobserved components model of housing bubbles: timings and effectiveness of monetary policies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 887-908, August.
    11. José De Gregorio, 2009. "Implementation of Inflation Targets in Emerging Markets," Chapters, in: Gill Hammond & Ravi Kanbur & Eswar Prasad (ed.), Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Armand Fouejieu,, 2017. "Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 51-70.
    14. Tilfani, Oussama & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Ferreira, Paulo & El Boukfaoui, My Youssef, 2022. "Heterogeneity in economic relationships: Scale dependence through the multivariate fractal regression," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 588(C).

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