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Semiparametric estimation of latent variable asset pricing models

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  • Dalderop, Jeroen

Abstract

This paper studies semiparametric identification and estimation of consumption-based asset pricing models with latent state variables. First, we measure how consumption, dividends, and prices depend on Markovian state variables describing aggregate output growth. Subsequently, we identify state-dependent components in the stochastic discount factor using the Euler equation. We develop tractable algorithms for filtering, smoothing, and sieve maximum likelihood estimation, and establish its consistency. Empirically, we find sizable nonlinearities in the impact of expected growth and volatility on the price–dividend ratio and discount factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Dalderop, Jeroen, 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of latent variable asset pricing models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:236:y:2023:i:1:s0304407623001598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; Volatility; Risk aversion; Latent variables; Semiparametric estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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