Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain
AbstractWe derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3602.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
economic history; national accounts; monthly GDP data; Great Depression;
Other versions of this item:
- N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
- Solomou, S. & Weale, M., 1992.
"UK National Income 1920-1938: The Implications of Balanced Estimates,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1996. "UK national income, 1920-1938: the implications of balanced estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 101-115, 02.
- Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-81, June.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02.
- Peter Hayes & Paul Turner, 2007. "Estimates of quarterly GDP for the interwar UK economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 569-572.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985.
"Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 925-946, December.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Solomou, Solomos & Vartis, Dimitris, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates in Britain, 1920 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 850-859, September.
- Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006.
"Dynamic factor analysis with non-linear temporal aggregation constraints,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C,
Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300.
- Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA.
- Foreman-Peck, James & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue, 2000. "A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 515-544, December.
- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- Crafts, Nicholas, 2013. "What Does the 1930s’ Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 141, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2012.
"Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain,"
CAGE Online Working Paper Series
102, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Nicholas Crafts & Terence C. Mills, 2012. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain," Working Papers 0031, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1018, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.