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Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator in a First-Order Autoregressive Model

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Author Info
Mukhtar M. Ali (University of Kentucky)
Abstract

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. Uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of the approximation to the distribution by a first few terms of this expansion is then investigated. It is found that the leading term of this expansion approximates well the distribution. The approximation is, in almost all cases, accurate to the second decimal place throughout the distribution. In the literature, there exists a number of approximations to this distribution which are specifically designed to apply in some special cases of this model. The present approximation compares favorably with those approximations and in fact, its accuracy is, with almost no exception, as good as or better than these other approximations. Convenience of numerical computations seems also to favor the present approximations over the others. An application of the finding is illustrated with examples.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9610004.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 23 Oct 1996
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9610004

Note: Type of Document - Word for Windows (V. 6/7) binary document; prepared on IBM PC compatible; to print on HP; pages: 29 . Revision of ewp-em/9604001 (UK-E-188-96)
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Related research
Keywords: Unit Root; Saddlepoint Approximation; Asymptotic expansion;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Does Gnp Have a Unit Root? a Reevaluation," Cahiers de recherche 8640, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:236-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:306-30 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Larsson, Rolf, 1995. "The Asymptotic Distributions Of Some Test Statistics in Near-Integrated AR Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 306-330, February. [Downloadable!]
  10. Nabeya, Seiji & Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "A General Approach to the Limiting Distribution for Estimators in Time Series Regression with Nonstable Autoregressive Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 145-63, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1977. "Approximations to Some Finite Sample Distributions Associated with a First-Order Stochastic Difference Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 463-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1988. "Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Perron, Pierre, 1991. "A Continuous Time Approximation to the Unstable First-Order Autoregressive Process: The Case without an Intercept," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 211-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Schwert, G. William, 1987. "Effects of model specification on tests for unit roots in macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 73-103, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Perron, P., 1987. "The Calculation of the Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator in Near-Integrated Model," Cahiers de recherche 8748, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Perron, Pierre, 1991. "A Continuous Time Approximation to the Stationary First-Order Autoregressive Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 236-252, June. [Downloadable!]
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