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A Continuous Time Approximation to the Unstable First-Order Autoregressive Process: The Case without an Intercept

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Author Info
Perron, Pierre

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Abstract

We consider a first-order autoregression with i.i.d. errors and a fixed initial condition. The asymptotic distribution of the normalized least-squares estimator as the sampling interval converges to zero is shown to be the same as the exact distribution of the continuous-time estimator in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This asymptotic distribution permits explicit consideration of the effect of the initial condition. The appropriate moment-generating function is derived and used to tabulate the limiting distribution and probability density functions, the moments and some power functions. The adequacy of this asymptotic approximation is found to be excellent for values of the autoregressive parameter near one and any fixed initial condition. Copyright 1991 by The Econometric Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 59 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 211-36
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:59:y:1991:i:1:p:211-36

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  1. John Hatgioannides & Spiros Mesomeris, 2005. "Mean Reversion in Equity Prices: the G-7 Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 64, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kene Henkens, 2000. "What makes a Scientific Article influential?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-032/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cosme Vodounou, 1998. "Inférence fondée sur les statistiques des rendements de long terme," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-20, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mukhtar M. Ali, 1996. "Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator in a First-Order Autoregressive Model," Econometrics 9610004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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