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Exact Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator in a First- Order Autoregressive Model

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Author Info
Mukhtar M. Ali (University of Kentucky)
Abstract

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. Uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of approximation to the distribution by a first few terms of this expansion is then investigated. It is found that the leading term of this expansion approximates well the distribution. The approximation is, in almost all cases, accurate to the second decimal place throughout the distribution. Only rarely the accuracy improves by including further term beyond the first term of this expansion in the approximation. As a matter of fact, often the accuracy of such an approximation with additional term(s) deteriorates. An application of the finding is illustrated with examples.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9604001.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 03 Apr 1996
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9604001

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Related research
Keywords: Unit Root; Saddlepoint Approximation; Asymptotic Expansion;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Does Gnp Have a Unit Root? a Reevaluation," Cahiers de recherche 8640, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1977. "Approximations to Some Finite Sample Distributions Associated with a First-Order Stochastic Difference Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 463-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1988. "Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Perron, P., 1987. "The Calculation of the Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator in Near-Integrated Model," Cahiers de recherche 8748, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1981. "Testing for Unit Roots: 1," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 753-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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