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The Estonian real estate market: a speculative bubble?

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  • Francesca Medda

    ()

  • Luca Cocconcelli

Abstract

The economic growth of the Baltic Region after independence has largely been realised through numerous reforms and capital market liberalisation. The Estonian economy in the past two decades was highly leveraged and characterised by the increase in real estate prices. This market had the pattern of a bubble. Our objective in this work is to evaluate through standard econometric analyses the effects of the speculative trend in real estate prices in Tallinn. In particular, we examine the presence and development of speculative bubbles in the financial and real estate markets. The analysis is extended in order to evaluate how the Estonian land fiscal system failed to prevent the market distortion. We demonstrate in the conclusion that a more rigourous implementation of the Estonian land tax could have diminished the effects of the boom and bust dynamics in the real estate market in Estonia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa10p302.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa10p302

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  1. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
  4. Hanushek, Eric A & Quigley, John M, 1980. "What Is the Price Elasticity of Housing Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 449-54, August.
  5. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
  6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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