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Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model

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  • Tobias Linzert

    ()
    (Universität Frankfurt am Main)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a small macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 224 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 317-336

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:3:p:317-336

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Keywords: Unemployment; Structural VAR; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
  2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  5. Kai Carstensen & Gerd Hansen, 2000. "Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 475-493.
  6. Dennis W. Carlton, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," NBER Working Papers 1813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
  8. Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
  9. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  12. Alan Manning, 1992. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:4:p:472-91 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Andersen, Torben M. & Hylleberg, Svend, 1998. "Wage Adjustment And Employment Persistency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 472-491, December.
  15. Lindbeck, Assar, 1992. "Macroeconomic theory and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 209-235, April.
  16. Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 50, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  17. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
  18. Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
  19. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-80 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Giannini, Carlo & Lanzarotti, Antonio & Seghelini, Mario, 1995. "A traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-155, March.
  21. Hansen, Gerd, 2000. "The German labour market and the unification shock," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 439-454, August.
  22. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2012. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? What Drives the Skill-Composition of Labor Flows in Germany?," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62309, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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