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Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model / Die Hintergründe deutscher Arbeitslosigkeit: Evidenz von einem Strukturellen VAR

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  • Linzert Tobias

    (Goethe-University Frankfurt, Department of Economics, Mertonstr. 17, D-60054 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a small macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Linzert Tobias, 2004. "Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model / Die Hintergründe deutscher Arbeitslosigkeit: Evidenz von einem Strukturellen VAR," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 224(3), pages 317-336, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:3:p:317-336
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2004-0303
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Antoine Kamiantako Miyamueni & Henry Ngongo Muganza, 2018. "Chocs technologiques, chocs des prix et fluctuations du ch\^omage en R\'epublique D\'emocratique du Congo," Papers 1804.09532, arXiv.org.
    3. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2011. "Unequal pay or unequal employment? What drives the skill-composition of labor flows in Germany?," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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