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The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area

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  • David Mayes
  • Matti Virén

Abstract

Using information from a variety of sources, including our own estimates from quarterly data for each of the countries over the period 1972–1997, this paper suggests that the exchange rate will play an important role in the transmission of the impact of monetary policy through to the real economy and inflation in the euro area. Although the share of external trade in the euro area's GDP is only around 10 per cent this is only one factor that affects the transmission mechanism and the role of the exchange rate is likely to be substantially greater when all factors are taken into account. As a first approximation it would be reasonable to assume that an increase in the real 90-day interest rate of 100 basis points would have approximately the same effect on demand pressure two years later as a 3.5 per cent fall in the real euro exchange rate. This implies that the euro area will tend to behave like a large open economy rather than a closed economy and hence that it would be helpful in informing monetary policy to construct a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) using these weights. A separate paper (Mayes and Virén, 1998) suggests how an MCI provides a useful summary of high frequency information to assist monetary policy and financial markets in short run decisions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

Volume (Year): 136 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 199-231

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:136:y:2000:i:2:p:199-231

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Keywords: E52; E58;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March.
  2. Alfred Guender, 2005. "On Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and the Construction of MCIs in the Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 189-207, April.
  3. Wladimir Andreff, 2001. "The benefits of EU enlargement and Euro membership for Central and Eastern European Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 48-63.
  4. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September.
  5. Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2010. "Measuring Monetary Conditions in A Small Open Economy: The Case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  8. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 20209, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Mayes, David G. & Viren, Matti, 2005. "Monetary policy problems for currency unions: asymmetry and the problem of aggregation in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 219-251, March.
  10. Matti Virén, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Automatic Stabilisers and Policy Coordination in EMU," Discussion Papers 204, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  11. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 86, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  12. Wladimir Andreff, 2001. "Les gains attendus par les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale de l'élargissement de l'Union européenne et de l'entrée dans l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 49-64.
  13. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.

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