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The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth

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Author Info
Antonio Fatás

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Abstract

This paper studies the link between business cycles and long-term growth rates. We present empirical evidence that uncovers interesting and significant interactions between cycles and growth. We show that business cycles cannot be considered as temporary deviations from a trend and that there is a strong positive correlation between the persistence of short-term fluctuations and long-term growth rates. A simple endogenous growth model where business cycles affect growth can easily replicate this correlation. We then study the link between volatility and growth. We show that countries with more volatile fluctuations display lower long-term growth rates. We also find evidence that there is a non-linearity in this relationship. The effect of business cycles on growth is much larger for poor countries or countries with a lower degree of financial development.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 156.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:156

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References listed on IDEAS
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  6. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. " Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-Run Persistence and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 147-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fatas, Antonio, 2000. "Endogenous growth and stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 107-128, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2001. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer and Weil Seriously," NBER Working Papers 8365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabrizio Carmignani, . "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Theodore Palivos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2009. "Education and Growth: A Simple Model with Complicated Dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 2009_08, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ramirez-Rondán Nelson, 2007. "Nonlinear Volatility Effects on Growth in Developing Economies," Working Papers 2007-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  5. José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 74, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  7. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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