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Economic Forecasting for Large Russian Cities

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  • Raymond Struyk

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  • Douglas Wissoker
  • Ioulia Zaitseva

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    Abstract

    The Budget Code of the Russian Federation requires that local self-governments prepare their budgets for the next year taking into account the likely economic situation in that year. To date these governments have had little guidance to use in preparing their budgets. This paper reports the results of initial steps to develop a procedure for forecasting key economic parameters at the local level. “Local level” is defined as cities that are capitals of Subjects of the Federation (similar to U.S. states); generally these are cities of over 100,000 population. Econometric models are reported for employment, manufacturing production, retail sales, average wage rates, volume of newly constructed housing, and fixed capital formation. The choice of estimation procedures was significantly constrained by data availability. The current document is an interim report, prepared after the basic econometric work has been completed but before the model is tested in actual forecasting. The paper consists of six further sections. The first lists the economic variables to be projected. The second describes the economic logic underlying the models specified for each variable. The third section then outlines the econometric strategy. This is followed in the fourth section with an overview of the data employed in the estimates. The fifth section presents the final models. The paper closes with a short discussion of the plans for future work in this direction. In the next phase of the work the forecasting qualities of these models will be evaluated.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa04p318.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p318

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    1. Berger, Mark C. & Blomquist, Glenn C. & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2003. "Compensating Differentials in Emerging Labor and Housing Markets: Estimates of Quality of Life in Russian Cities," IZA Discussion Papers 900, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mayo Stephen K. & Stein, James I., 1995. "Housing and Labor Market Distortions in Poland: Linkages and Policy Implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 153-182, June.
    4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Figlio, David N. & Blonigen, Bruce A., 2000. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Local Communities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 338-363, September.
    6. Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
    7. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-38, May.
    8. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June.
    10. A. Granberg & Iu. Zaitseva, 2002. "Growth Rates in the National Economic Space," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(8), pages 72-91, December.
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