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Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method

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  • Blien, Uwe
  • Tassinopoulos, Alexandros

Abstract

The paper provides an outline of a method useful for forecasting problems. The approach is based on a combination of top-down and bottom-up techniques. It is applied to project employment in all 327 (western) German districts for a time span of two years. The most important step in the preparation of the forecast uses the ENTROP method, which is an entropy optimizing procedure, a generalization of common RAS techniques, newly developed for the estimation of matrices from heterogeneous information. In a defined sense the estimated matrix is the most probable one. The method chosen is very flexible and uses any available information extensively. Therefore, the estimates are reliable as is shown in an ex-post forecast. There is a double purpose for the forecast of employment. First, it helps to gain insights in the causal processes generating regional developments and spatial disparities on labour markets. Second, it is useful for regional labour market policies, e.g. the budgetary planning of the Federal Employment Services. Cet article cherche a esquisser une methode qui repond aux problemes de la prevision. La methode est fondee sur une combinaison des techniques descendantes et ascendantes. On s'en sert afin de prevoir sur une periode de deux annees l'emploi dans chacun des 327 districts a l'ouest de l'Allemagne. Le stade preliminaire le plus important utilise la methode ENTROP, une methode qui optimise l'entropie, une generalisation des techniques RAS courantes, nouvellement developpees pour estimer les matrices de l'information heterogene. Du point de vue de sa definition, la matrice estimee s'averera la plus probable. La methode choisie est tres flexible et emploie beaucoup toute information disponible. Ainsi, les estimations sont sures, dont fait preuve une prevision ex post. La raison d'etre de la prevision de l'emploi est double. En premier, on arrive a mieux connaitre les causes du developpement regional et des ecarts regionaux du marche du travail. En deux

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa99pa344.

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Date of creation: Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa99pa344

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  1. Paul Krugman, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
  2. Eileen Appelbaum & Ronald Schettkat, 1994. "The end of full employment? On economic development in industrialized countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 122-130, May.
  3. Holden, Darryl R & Nairn, Alasdair G M & Swales, J K, 1989. "Shift-Share Analysis of Regional Growth and Policy: A Critique," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(1), pages 15-34, February.
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
  5. M B Gon�alves & I UIyss�a-Neto, 1993. "The development of a new gravity - opportunity model for trip distribution," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 25(6), pages 817-826, June.
  6. P B Slater, 1992. "Equilibrium and nonequilibrium statistical thermodynamical approaches to modeling spatial interaction dynamics," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 24(3), pages 441-446, March.
  7. Zellner, A., 1988. "Optimal Information-Processing And Bayes' Theorem," Papers m8803, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  8. Lutz Bellmann & Uwe Blien, 2001. "Wage curve analyses of establishment data from western Germany," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(4), pages 851-863, July.
  9. Oberhofer, Walter & Blien, Uwe & Tassinopoulos, Alexandros, 2000. "Forecasting Regional Employment With A Generalised Extrapolation Method," ERSA conference papers ersa00p170, European Regional Science Association.
  10. G M Hyman, 1969. "The calibration of trip distribution models," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 1(1), pages 105-112, January.
  11. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
  12. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Nijkamp, Peter, 1975. "Reflections on gravity and entropy models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 203-225, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
  2. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p117, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Raymond Struyk & Douglas Wissoker & Ioulia Zaitseva, 2004. "Economic Forecasting for Large Russian Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa04p318, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Katharina Hampel & Marcus Kunz & Norbert Schanne & Ruediger Wapler & Antje Weyh, 2006. "Regional Unemployment Forecasting Using Structural Component Models With Spatial Autocorrelation," ERSA conference papers ersa06p196, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter, 2006. "Forecasting regional labor market developments under spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  6. repec:dgr:uvatin:2005041 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Labour Market Developments Under Spatial Heterogeneity and Spatial Autocorrelation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-041/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets," Experimental 0511001, EconWPA.

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