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Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis

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Author Info
Longhi, Simonetta ()
Nijkamp, Peter ()
Reggiani, Aura ()
Blien, Uwe ()

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Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p117.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 1997. "Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 545-65, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1990. "The Wage Curve," NBER Working Papers 3181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-74, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Uwe Blien, Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994. "Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fischer, Manfred M. & Reismann, Martin & Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina, 2000. "Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction. Modelling By Bootstrapping," ERSA conference papers ersa00p370, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kennedy, Steven & Borland, Jeff, 2000. "A Wage Curve for Australia?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 774-803, October.
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  12. Groot Wim & Mekkelholt Eddie & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1992. "Further evidence on the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 355-359, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sato, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Search theory and the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 93-98, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Janssens, Stefan & Konings, Jozef, 1998. "One more wage curve: the case of Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 223-227, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment and wage formation with matching frictions and worker moral hazard," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  18. Johansen, Kare, 1997. "The Wage Curve: Convexity, Kinks and Composition Effects," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 71-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-67, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Employment in Germany by Means of Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics 0511002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets," Experimental 0511001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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