Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Longhi, Simonetta

    ()

  • Nijkamp, Peter

    ()

  • Reggiani, Aura

    ()

  • Blien, Uwe

    ()

Abstract

The aim of the present paper is to forecast regional employment developments in the 327 West-German districts. Using a Neural Networks (NNs) methodology we try to identify the existence of underlying structural relationships between the input variables - data on regional and sectoral employment and wages - and the future development of employment at a district level. In order to offer reliable forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001, a variety of NN models has been developed and compared. The emerging results confirm the ability of NNs in capturing the complex data structures - in the training and test phases - and hence in 'extrapolating' useful information in a multi-regional context. Concerning the forecasting phases, our analysis highlights the necessity of carrying out further research experiments - by introducing additional economic background variables - in order to get more insight into the mechanism and structure of spatio-temporal employment data.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www-sre.wu-wien.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa02/cd-rom/papers/117.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p117.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria
Web page: http://www.ersa.org

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1990. " The Wage Curve," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 215-35.
    • David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
  2. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
  3. Fischer, M.M. & Nijkamp, P., 1989. "Some major issues in regional labour market analysis," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  4. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
  5. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, 07.
  6. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  7. Kennedy, S. & Borland, J., 1997. "A wage Curve for Australia?," CEPR Discussion Papers 372, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  8. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1998. "What's New about the New Economic Geography?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 7-17, Summer.
  10. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-90, September.
  11. Uwe Blien & Alexandros Tassinopoulos, 2001. "Forecasting Regional Employment with the ENTROP Method," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 113-124.
  12. Sato, Yasuhiro, 2000. "Search theory and the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 93-98, January.
  13. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
  14. Kare Johansen, 1997. "The wage curve: convexity, kinks and composition effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 71-78.
  15. Fischer, Manfred M. & Reismann, Martin & Hlavackova-Schindler, Katerina, 2000. "Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction. Modelling By Bootstrapping," ERSA conference papers ersa00p370, European Regional Science Association.
  16. Paul Krugman, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
  17. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2001. "Equilibrium unemployment and wage formation with matching frictions and worker moral hazard," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
  18. Janssens, Stefan & Konings, Jozef, 1998. "One more wage curve: the case of Belgium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 223-227, August.
  19. Chiarini, Bruno & Piselli, Paolo, 1997. "Wage Setting, Wage Curve and Phillips Curve: The Italian Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(5), pages 545-65, November.
  20. Groot Wim & Mekkelholt Eddie & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1992. "Further evidence on the wage curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 355-359, March.
  21. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
  22. Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Forecasting Regional Employment in Germany by Means of Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics 0511002, EconWPA.
  2. Roberto Patuelli & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien, 2006. "New Neural Network Methods for Forecasting Regional Employment: an Analysis of German Labour Markets," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 7-30.
  3. Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Tsang, Wai Fai, 1999. "Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows : applications to multimodal European freight transport," Serie Research Memoranda 0002, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  4. Roberto Patuelli & Simonetta Longhi & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2005. "Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets," Experimental 0511001, EconWPA.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.