New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980–2004
AbstractIn 1994, Blanchflower and Oswald reported that they have found an ‘empirical law of economics’ – the Wage Curve. According to their empirical results, the elasticity of wages with respect to regional unemployment is -0.1. This holds especially for the Anglo-Saxon countries. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on a random sample of 974,179 employees drawn from the employment statistics of the Federal Employment Services of Germany (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) over the period 1980-2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. This means that this wage equation is not a pure Phillips curve, nor a static Wage Curve, and one should account for wage dynamics. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between -0.02 and -0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this wage elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner). We confirm that the wage elasticity is more flexible the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3433.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Labour Economics, 2009, 16 (1), 47-51
Contact details of provider:
Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Other versions of this item:
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2009. "New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-51, January.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2008. "New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 103, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-04-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-04-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-GEO-2008-04-21 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-LAB-2008-04-21 (Labour Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bell, Brian & Nickell, Stephen & Quintini, Glenda, 2002.
"Wage equations, wage curves and all that,"
Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-360, July.
- Ammermueller, Andreas & Lucifora, Claudio & Origo, Federica & Zwick, Thomas, 2007.
"Still Searching for the Wage Curve: Evidence from Germany and Italy,"
IZA Discussion Papers
2674, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ammermüller, Andreas & Lucifora, Claudio & Origo, Federica & Zwick, Thomas, 2007. "Still searching for the wage curve: evidence from Germany and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-008, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Lutz Bellmann & Uwe Blien, 2001. "Wage curve analyses of establishment data from western Germany," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(4), pages 851-863, July.
- David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
- David Card, 1995.
"The Wage Curve: A Review,"
722, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997.
"What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
- Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2002.
"The Last Word on the Wage Curve?,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
02-029/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Mar 2003.
- André Sapir, 1995. "Introduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(6), pages 741-744, November.
- Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez & José M. Ramos-Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
- Robert J. Flanagan, 1999. "Macroeconomic Performance and Collective Bargaining: An International Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1150-1175, September.
- Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005.
"The Wage Curve Reloaded,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
- Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
- Roberto Bande Ramudo & Melchor Fernández Fernández & Víctor Montuenga Gómez, 2011.
"Wage flexibility and local labour markets: homogeneity of the wage curve in Spain,"
Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica
0044, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
- Victor Montuenga & Roberto Bande & Melchor Fernandez, 2011. "Wage flexibility and local labour markets: homogeneity of the wage curve in Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa11p414, European Regional Science Association.
- Blien, Uwe & Messmann, Susanne & Trappmann, Mark, 2012.
"Do reservation wages react to regional unemployment?,"
IAB Discussion Paper
201222, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Uwe Blien & Susanne Messmann & Mark Trappmann, 2012. "Do reservation wages react to regional unemployment?," ERSA conference papers ersa12p662, European Regional Science Association.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2010.
"A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Approach to the German Wave Curve,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
126, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2012. "A dynamic spatial panel data approach to the German wage curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 12-21.
- Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
- Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Marcello M. EstevÃ£o, 2012. "Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility: Evidence from Brazil," IMF Working Papers 12/84, International Monetary Fund.
- Victor Montuenga & Inmaculada Garcia, 2011. "The wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data," ERSA conference papers ersa11p585, European Regional Science Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.