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New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004

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Abstract

Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) reported that they have found an 'empirical law of economics'--the Wage Curve. Our paper reconsiders the western German Wage Curve using disaggregated regional data and is based on almost one million employees drawn from the Federal Employment Services of Germany over the eriod 1980-2004. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. The unemployment elasticity is significant but relatively small: only between -0.02 and -0.04. We also check the sensitivity of this elasticity for different population groups (young versus old, men versus women, less educated versus highly educated, German native versus foreigner), confirming that it is stronger the weaker the bargaining power of the particular group.

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Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 103.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:103

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Keywords: Wage curve; regional labor markets; Phillips curve; panel data;

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  1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  3. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  4. Blanchard, O & Katz, L, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Working papers 96-29, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Bell, Brian & Nickell, Stephen & Quintini, Glenda, 2002. "Wage equations, wage curves and all that," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-360, July.
  6. Ammermüller, Andreas & Lucifora, Claudio & Origo, Federica & Zwick, Thomas, 2007. "Still searching for the wage curve: evidence from Germany and Italy," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-008, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. Thiess Buettner, 1999. "The effect of unemployment, aggregate wages, and spatial contiguity on local wages: An investigation with German district level data," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 47-67.
  8. David Card, 1995. "The Wage Curve: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 285-299, June.
  9. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe, 1998. "The German wage curve: evidence from the IAB employment sample," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 135-142, November.
  10. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-43, September.
  11. André Sapir, 1995. "Introduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(6), pages 741-744, November.
  12. Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez & José M. Ramos-Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
  13. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2002. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-029/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Mar 2003.
  14. Robert J. Flanagan, 1999. "Macroeconomic Performance and Collective Bargaining: An International Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1150-1175, September.
  15. Lutz Bellmann & Uwe Blien, 2001. "Wage curve analyses of establishment data from western Germany," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(4), pages 851-863, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Andini, Corrado, 2014. "Persistence Bias and Schooling Returns," IZA Discussion Papers 8143, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Bernard FINGLETON & Silvia PALOMBI, 2013. "The Wage Curve Reconsidered: Is It Truly An 'Empirical Law Of Economics'?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 38, pages 49-92.
  3. Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2010. "A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Approach to the German Wave Curve," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 126, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  4. Victor Montuenga & Roberto Bande & Melchor Fernandez, 2011. "Wage flexibility and local labour markets: homogeneity of the wage curve in Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa11p414, European Regional Science Association.
  5. García-Mainar , Inmaculada & Montuenga-Gómez , Víctor M., 2012. "Wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data (1994-2001)," Investigaciones Regionales, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 24, pages 41-58.
  6. Victor Montuenga & Inmaculada Garcia, 2011. "The wage dynamics in Spain: evidence from individual data," ERSA conference papers ersa11p585, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Fingleton, Bernard & Palombi, Silvia, 2013. "Spatial panel data estimation, counterfactual predictions, and local economic resilience among British towns in the Victorian era," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 649-660.
  8. Uwe Blien & Susanne Messmann & Mark Trappmann, 2012. "Do reservation wages react to regional unemployment?," ERSA conference papers ersa12p662, European Regional Science Association.
  9. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Marcello M. Estevão, 2012. "Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 12/84, International Monetary Fund.

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