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Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts

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  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Sekhposyan, Tatevik

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to implement regression-based tests of predictive ability in unstable environments, including, in particular, forecast unbiasedness and efficiency tests, commonly referred to as tests of forecast rationality. Our framework is general: it can be applied to model-based forecasts obtained either with recursive or rolling window estimation schemes, as well as to forecasts that are model-free. The proposed tests provide more evidence against forecast rationality than previously found in the Federal Reserve's Greenbook forecasts as well as survey-based private forecasts. It confirms, however, that the Federal Reserve has additional information about current and future states of the economy relative to market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11391
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Forecast rationality; Monetary policy; Greenbook; Survey; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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