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Inflation Targeting, the Natural Rate and Expectations

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  • David Kiefer
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    Abstract

    In the new Keynesian model of endogenous stabilization governments have objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. Because they react quickly to inflation shocks, governments can lean against the macroeconomic wind. We develop an econometric test of this characterization of the political-economic equilibrium using the Kalman filter. Applying this methodology to a variety of quadratic social welfare functions, we find that an inflation target functional form is consistent with US history. We also find it more likely that expectations of inflation are adaptive, rather than rational.

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    File URL: http://economics.utah.edu/publications/2008_03.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Utah, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah with number 2008_03.

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    Length: 23 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2008_03

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    Keywords: endogenous stabilization; policy objectives; adaptive expectations;

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    1. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 10764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
    3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
    4. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
    6. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
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