LATCOIN: determining medium to long-run tendencies of economic growth in Latvia in real time
AbstractThis paper presents a method of estimating the current state of Latvia’s economy. The evaluation object is medium to long-run growth of real GDP, but not actual GDP itself, which helps to filter out various one-off effects and focus on medium and long-run tendencies. Our indicator, called LATCOIN (Latvia’s Business Cycle Coincidence Indicator), could be viewed as a simple adaptation of new EUROCOIN for Latvia with some changes in methodology. LATCOIN is a monthly estimate of the medium to long-run growth of Latvia’s real GDP, which is produced on the 9th working day of the next month. Using a large panel of macroeconomic variables, a few smooth unobservable factors describing the economy are constructed. Further, these factors are used for the estimation of LATCOIN.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies in its journal Baltic Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Latvia's real GDP; band-pass filter; coincidence indicator; generalised principal components; real-time performance;
Other versions of this item:
- Konstantins Benkovskis, 2010. "LATCOIN: Determining Medium to Long-Run Tendencies of Economic Growth in Latvia in Real Time," Working Papers 2010/01, Latvijas Banka.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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