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Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data

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  • Aleksejs Melihovs
  • Svetlana Rusakova

Abstract

At any stage of an economic cycle, policy makers and production managers are to make decisions how to benefit from an economic upswing most, or how to mitigate the adverse effects of an economic downturn. An early evaluation of economic development trends in a country will lead to a more favourable translation of policy decisions into economic processes at both microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. An assessment of economic business cycles often involves business and consumer survey results as evidenced, for instance, by rich practices of the EU and other world countries. This paper examines the usefulness of indicators from business and consumer surveys in the short-term forecasting of Latvia's economic development.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2005/04.

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Date of creation: 14 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200504

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Related research

Keywords: business and consumer surveys; economic development; short-term forecasting;

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References

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  1. Bruno Giancarlo & Lupi Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," ISAE Working Papers 33, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  2. Croushore, Dean, 2004. "Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Paul Schreyer & Corinne Emery, 1996. "Short-Term Indicators: Using Qualitative Indicators to Update Production Indices," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 1996/3, OECD Publishing.
  4. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  5. Lucia F. Dunn & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2006. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked to Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 343-351, April.
  6. Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
  7. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
  8. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper Series 151, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Konstantīns Beņkovskis, 2010. "LATCOIN: determining medium to long-run tendencies of economic growth in Latvia in real time," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 27-48, December.
  2. Bessonovs, Andrejs, 2010. "Faktoru modeļu agregēta un dezagregēta pieeja IKP prognožu precizitātes mērīšanā
    [Measuring GDP forecasting accuracy using factor models: aggregated vs. disaggregated approach]
    ," MPRA Paper 30386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Latvia's Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Using Monthly Indicators," Working Papers 2008/05, Latvijas Banka.

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